Race No: 3
Horse Name: MOONLIGHT BEAUTY
Horse No: 3
Investment: Win
Type: Casual
Rationale: MOONLIGHT BEAUTY expected show further improvement to win this race.
Result-Won
Race No: 5
Horse Name: SUPERIOR QUEST
Horse No: 1
Investment: Win
Type: Casual
Rationale: Well tuned SUPERIOR QUEST had got speed figure in his side beat the favorite.
Result-Lost
Adios
Captain
Ooty races today
4 days ago
@captain,
ReplyDeletei find quite interesting your selection in race no 5.
in spite of your speed rating showing a point inferior by superior quest, you have elected this horse as your choice,i am aware in horse racing the best reasons some time do fail.
i wish my reasoning also can fail
because racing is not mathematics
racing is not numbers
racing is not science
here looking at the weight factor and the races these 2horses met in fact 3 horses,
superior quest,Eloise and Star warrior
i find your reason in opting for superior quest looks very puzzling.
superior quest met star warrior in race no 56 at pune both carrying same weight of 60kg
star warrior thrashed out superior quest by nearly 5 length,
and if you look at the today wt difference of 8 kg and 5length factor,
a sheer class wt is the difference say 12 kg
can , will superior quest pass the winning post defying weight theory
even the odds factor which i see in rwitc website
Eloise 2.5
Star warrior 70/100
if you convert odds into percentage
28.6 +59 =87.6
and if you project another 20 % say odds of 4 to 1 which makes this race round book of 107.6 % an advantage to the layers
and in its last run superior quest beat only river star a 4yr old,by a head,
if you look at the running line of this race, pace line
both early pace and sustained pace 23.53 23.44
both below the accepted pace of 24.00
but with today carrying top weight of 59 a difference of 8 kg will be worry some factor to your selections.and compared to Eloise too
star is better placed in weights
being a filly advantage wt is lost for Eloise
she is carrying 2 kg more than star and if you take in to the sex allowance of 1.5kg
she is at the wrong end.
the only silver line factor is that superior quest is in line for the coveted Hattrick
will it happen
is it possible for superior quest
we all have to wait till 4.05 pm today
i will not bet star warrior as the odds is not value odds, neither i will play superior quest because of value odds, i presume this horse will be available at 5 to 1 or more perhaps
in the end i wish your speed rating all the very best
have a nice day captain
easwaran
Hi Captain,
ReplyDeleteYour blog list show the name of some blogs who closed down their shop. Is it deliberate for ignoring some active blogs from your list.
Dear Eashwar,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comments…
I publish IR Rating not Speed Rating. (Speed Rating is just one of the 10 factors I consider). Now let us looks this race bit more details basically the ability & intention of SUPERIOR QUEST and the likely potential other two public choices ELOISE and STAR WARRIOR.
Ability & Intention of SUPERIOR QUEST
I agree with you as of now the general public perception is that SUPERIOR QUEST is an out and out sprinter. However his trainer does not subscribe to this public opinion and he is still on the process of discovering the optimum distance for SUPERIOR QUEST. This is evident from the way he being prepared, if one look back to KG’s fast performance you can confirm my claim. I hope connections will not try start into finish tactics.
ELOISE and STAR WARRIOR
Extrapolated “Captain Speed Rating” for 1400 meters SUPERIOR QUEST much better than these two.
I think this race will be keenly contested and SUPERIOR QUEST is a definite overlay and I am going to take my chances. I wish all the best for connections of SUPERIOR QUEST and punters who is going to back him.
Adios
Captain
Dear Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteI know blog list is useful for visitors. Will do the clean-up. I will add Nair blog by weekend, I do not know about any other active blogs, please let me know the details.
Adios
Captain