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Monday, February 17, 2014

Magic Sheet Explanation

Magic Sheet Explanation

First time in India, Analisi, one of a kind, presents a holistic hair splitting study of thoroughbred racing in India. One “Magic Sheet” will provide all runner’s Winning, Placing and even Upset probability. This will empower you in well informed decision making. This time tested formula will make your Horse racing hobby and pleasant experience.

Read on to understand various factors in “Magic Sheet”

JF (Jockey Factor): Higher the better
Top and inform Jockeys wins most of the races. But when there are many top jockeys in a race how do we know who have better chance? Well if we closely study the past runs & wins of Jockeys, trainers and owners in certain combinations we can find a certain patterns. Here is an effort to bring these patterns to numeric rating to compare them fairly.

CF (Class Factor): Higher the better
Majority of the races run in India are handicap races. Leaving out few very good horses, most of the horses find themselves in a class where it can perform well. This factor keeps a tab on who is coming down to the winning mark as far as class is concerned.
                                                  
TF (Track Factor): Higher the better
A trainer prepares the horses to win/place the targeted race by different methods and one of them is giving practice in the morning. A glimpse into particular trainers past winners and their prior track preparation should give us the clue. Track works is also indication towards the fitness of the horses. Since I won’t be able to watch the track at every race course a generalized method used interpret the comments given by the various track reporters. So this factor tells us how a particular horse fares at this count.

PF (Pedigree Factor): Higher the better
It is all in blood, whether a horse runs first time or tenth time the blood line is very important. By observing we can find very clear pattern on how and when they mature.

OF (Odds Factor): Higher the better
Odds are the single most important factor in racing. This is cumulative sum of intentions of the connections and recommendation of the various handicapping experts. Studies show that it is better to follow the horses in betting. Since this rating is prepared much before the actual odds available one should treat with care and in conjunction with other factors.

FF (Form Factor): Higher the better
Horses inform perform to best of its ability, certain Artificial Intelligence techniques used to figure out who is already in inform, getting into form and who is losing form.

DF (Distance Factor): Higher the better
You must have heard about the term called pet distance. Well this is a statistical approach to find the pet distance of a horse.

OJF (On Job Factor): Higher the better
There are many situations where you will find a superior horse in a field, ridden by an inform Jockey, right Odds, etc... Still we are not sure whether the connections are interested or not.  This factor should give you clear indication of the same and I believe most important factor to be considered. This is based on “Prisoners Dilemma” logic.

NF (Negative Factor): Lower the better
There are certain things which are very common in losers, who were in betting. Well my suggestion is that irrespective of if they are in betting or not one should avoid them. Why to challenge the history?

Pick7: Higher the better
Well I looked at the most common characteristic of the winners for about 10,000+ races and I found there are 21 of them. Like they would have been ridden by a inform Jockey, they would have placed in  the immediate last race, would have been in betting in immediate last race, would have come into certain Patten, etc.. One should avoid runners who fail to get even 7 out of these 21.

JCF (Jockey Current Form): Higher the better
Considering total life time & immediate past 30 Mounts, Wins and Place a certain weightage is applied to create Jockey’s Current Form. This rating gets updated once in every week and a close watch will let you know which Jockey is getting into form and who is losing his Midas touch. Whatever the compelling reasons try to avoid any jockey with less than 1 JCF. Isn’t good to join someone who is blessed with good luck at this moment to script our own success story?

Num (Numeric): Lower the better
Well, all race goers are most cared about one thing that is “what is the final position of their Choice” in any particular race. Liner Regression method (Artificial Intelligence) is applied here to figure about the same. Whatever the compelling reasons one should try to avoid any horses with more than Num value 6.

CSR (Captain’s Speed Rating): Higher the better
Bayer Speed is considered as one of the best way to evaluate the comparative ability of all the runners in a field. Based on the same principle this is an indigenized version for Indian races. Rating 100 is assumed to be required for a particular class and distance, and anything near to that figure is considered as good. No rating is mentioned if horse is running first time or not raced in last six months.

IR (IR Rating): Higher the better
Putting it all together, with help of Artificial Intelligence certain weightage is assigned all the factors mentioned above and some other factors and all horses are rated. Anything above 130 is good.

POS (IR Position): Lower the better
Based on IR Rating expected position is assigned to all horses. It is a mid-stage predication in Analisi Handicapping method. It is profitable to stick to top 3 positions.

Win% (Win Probability): Higher the better
To win a race, horse need not to be a good horse, just better than other competitors. Here is an effort to assign the Winning Probability to all the runners. The other dilemma all investors face is that how much to invest, higher the win probability higher the investment. This adds up to 100% and most important field in the “Magic Sheet” and all horses sort based on this.

Place% (Place Probability): Higher the better
Protecting the capital is the most important thing in any form of investment. I am of the opinion that all investment in racing must be Place. This is similar to Win Probability however there it adds up 200% or 300% depend up on the number of runners.

Upset% (Upset Probability): Higher the better
Somehow most race goers like long odds winners, here is an interesting points for you to refer, consider them if offered odds are more than 8/1.

General Guidelines
Selection Process

  1. Avoid horses with less than 40% win probability.
  2. Constrain your selections to top 3 IR Positions.
  3. Invest only in horses in betting, avoid horses with too much fluxuating odds at the race time.
  4. Avoid any horses with IR Rating is less than 130 points.
  5. Observe and master yourself in identifying picture perfect horse in the paddock.
Money Management
  1.  Look for opportunities where place return is 70% to 200%.
  2.  Never invest more than 10% of your bankroll.
  3. Observe and master yourself in identifying smart money flow in the ring.
  4. Have medium to long term target (like monthly rather than daily)
  5. Wait for opportunities to come to you.
In case you are curious about how all these works you may view the ppt on Analisi.

3 comments:

  1. pls tell me how to find out rating 130 above i am big looser pls guide me how to se;ect horse sunil hyderabad 9391072720

    ReplyDelete
  2. deaprain,

    aRE YOU OKAY , HOW IS YOUR HEALTH

    ReplyDelete