sunday races
2 days ago
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Monday, February 24, 2014
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Friday, February 21, 2014
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Magic Sheet for Bangalore 21st Feb 2014
Given below are the short listed horse for the Day. Let us wait and see how many of them land in Place Money.
TEMUJIN and SILHOUETTE
Don’t Forget to carry copy of the Magic Sheet to Race Course as a Ready reckoner.
Adios
Captain
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Monday, February 17, 2014
Magic Sheet Explanation
Magic Sheet Explanation
First time in India, Analisi, one of a kind, presents a holistic hair splitting study of thoroughbred racing in India. One “Magic Sheet” will provide all runner’s Winning, Placing and even Upset probability. This will empower you in well informed decision making. This time tested formula will make your Horse racing hobby and pleasant experience.
Read on to understand various factors in
“Magic Sheet”
JF (Jockey Factor):
Higher the better
Top and inform Jockeys wins most of the
races. But when there are many top jockeys in a race how do we know who have
better chance? Well if we closely study the past runs & wins of Jockeys, trainers
and owners in certain combinations we can find a certain patterns. Here is an
effort to bring these patterns to numeric rating to compare them fairly.
CF (Class Factor):
Higher the better
Majority of the races run in India are
handicap races. Leaving out few very good horses, most of the horses find
themselves in a class where it can perform well. This factor keeps a tab on who
is coming down to the winning mark as far as class is concerned.
TF (Track
Factor): Higher the better
A trainer prepares the horses to win/place
the targeted race by different methods and one of them is giving practice in
the morning. A glimpse into particular trainers past winners and their prior
track preparation should give us the clue. Track works is also indication
towards the fitness of the horses. Since I won’t be able to watch the track at
every race course a generalized method used interpret the comments given by the
various track reporters. So this factor tells us how a particular horse fares
at this count.
PF (Pedigree
Factor): Higher the better
It is all in blood, whether a horse runs
first time or tenth time the blood line is very important. By observing we can
find very clear pattern on how and when they mature.
OF (Odds
Factor): Higher the better
Odds are the single most important factor in
racing. This is cumulative sum of intentions of the connections and
recommendation of the various handicapping experts. Studies show that it is
better to follow the horses in betting. Since this rating is prepared much
before the actual odds available one should treat with care and in conjunction
with other factors.
FF (Form
Factor): Higher the better
Horses inform perform to best of its ability,
certain Artificial Intelligence techniques used to figure out who is already in
inform, getting into form and who is losing form.
DF (Distance Factor):
Higher the better
You must have heard about the term called pet
distance. Well this is a statistical approach to find the pet distance of a
horse.
OJF (On Job
Factor): Higher the better
There are many situations where you will find
a superior horse in a field, ridden by an inform Jockey, right Odds, etc...
Still we are not sure whether the connections are interested or not. This factor should give you clear indication
of the same and I believe most important factor to be considered. This is based
on “Prisoners Dilemma” logic.
NF (Negative Factor): Lower the better
There are certain things which are very
common in losers, who were in betting. Well my suggestion is that irrespective
of if they are in betting or not one should avoid them. Why to challenge the
history?
Pick7: Higher
the better
Well I looked at the most common
characteristic of the winners for about 10,000+ races and I found there are 21
of them. Like they would have been ridden by a inform Jockey, they would have
placed in the immediate last race, would
have been in betting in immediate last race, would have come into certain
Patten, etc.. One should avoid runners who fail to get even 7 out of these 21.
JCF (Jockey
Current Form): Higher the better
Considering total life time & immediate
past 30 Mounts, Wins and Place a certain weightage is applied to create
Jockey’s Current Form. This rating gets updated once in every week and a close
watch will let you know which Jockey is getting into form and who is losing his
Midas touch. Whatever the compelling reasons try to avoid any jockey with less
than 1 JCF. Isn’t good to join someone who is blessed with good luck at this
moment to script our own success story?
Num (Numeric):
Lower the better
Well, all race goers are most cared about one
thing that is “what is the final position of their Choice” in any particular
race. Liner Regression method (Artificial Intelligence) is applied here to
figure about the same. Whatever the compelling reasons one should try to avoid
any horses with more than Num value 6.
CSR (Captain’s
Speed Rating): Higher the better
Bayer Speed is considered as one of the best
way to evaluate the comparative ability of all the runners in a field. Based on
the same principle this is an indigenized version for Indian races. Rating 100
is assumed to be required for a particular class and distance, and anything
near to that figure is considered as good. No rating is mentioned if horse is
running first time or not raced in last six months.
IR (IR Rating):
Higher the better
Putting it all together, with help of Artificial
Intelligence certain weightage is assigned all the factors mentioned above and
some other factors and all horses are rated. Anything above 130 is good.
POS (IR
Position): Lower the better
Based on IR Rating expected position is assigned
to all horses. It is a mid-stage predication in Analisi Handicapping method. It
is profitable to stick to top 3 positions.
Win% (Win
Probability): Higher the better
To win a race, horse need not to be a good
horse, just better than other competitors. Here is an effort to assign the
Winning Probability to all the runners. The other dilemma all investors face is
that how much to invest, higher the win probability higher the investment. This
adds up to 100% and most important field in the “Magic Sheet” and all horses
sort based on this.
Place% (Place Probability):
Higher the better
Protecting the capital is the most important
thing in any form of investment. I am of the opinion that all investment in
racing must be Place. This is similar to Win Probability however there it adds
up 200% or 300% depend up on the number of runners.
Upset% (Upset
Probability): Higher the better
Somehow most race goers like long odds
winners, here is an interesting points for you to refer, consider them if
offered odds are more than 8/1.
General Guidelines
Selection
Process
- Avoid horses with less than 40% win probability.
- Constrain your selections to top 3 IR Positions.
- Invest only in horses in betting, avoid horses with too much fluxuating odds at the race time.
- Avoid any horses with IR Rating is less than 130 points.
- Observe and master yourself in identifying picture perfect horse in the paddock.
Money
Management
- Look for opportunities where place return is 70% to 200%.
- Never invest more than 10% of your bankroll.
- Observe and master yourself in identifying smart money flow in the ring.
- Have medium to long term target (like monthly rather than daily)
- Wait for opportunities to come to you.
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Friday, February 14, 2014
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Saturday, February 8, 2014
Friday, February 7, 2014
Monday, February 3, 2014
2nd Virtual Derby Contest
Dear All,
My favorite horse fighting it out in beautiful Mahalaxmi straight. Please like this and share with your friends with request to like this.
Adios
Captain
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